Global Macro Perspectives
Real time recreation of Yuri Gagarin’s pioneering first orbit, shot entirely in space from on board the International Space Station. The film combines this new footage with Gagarin’s original mission audio and a new musical score by composer Philip Sheppard.
*** The Big Picture:Does Fed Intervention Produce Low Volume Rallies? ***
*** Calculated Risk: Fed’s Dudley: Not “enthusiastic about tightening policy too early” ***
*** Calculated Risk: Fed’s Yellen: Too soon to exit QE2 ***
*** Calculated Risk: Economic Outlook and Downside Risks ***
*** FT beyondBRICs: China’s deficit: bullish for the redback ***
*** Quantivity: Portfolio Theory is Dead, Now What? ***
*** The Reformed Broker: Inside the Currency Boiler Rooms ***
*** Slope Of Hope: Weekend Summary – Bulls Still in Control ***
*** Slope Of Hope: Want to Feel Inadequate? ***
Weekly economic calendar.
China trade balance was reported at USD 0.14 billion vs. USD -7.3 billion in February and USD -3.4 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 35.8 and 27.3 percent vs. 2.4% and 19.4% y-o-y in February
For Q1 2011, exports and imports rose by 26.5% y-o-y and 32.6% y-o-y, with the trade deficit atUS$1bn.
Better than consensus, but high commodity prices clearly kicking in.
Baltic dry index fell 9.5% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.0%; Panamax Index fell 11.9%; Supramax Index was down 3.6%; Handysize Index was unchanged.
Oversupply across the board…
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 9; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 14.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs fell for 92 in February.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 5.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was down 1.8%.
Back to the same old story…oversupply…
*** Macro Man: Spendor Australis ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Google Has Gone Full ‘Tard ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Oil Looks Ready to Run ***
*** China Financial Markets: Reforming the banks ***
*** The Big Picture: What is the Source of Record Earnings? ***
*** The Big Picture: Mistakenly ***
*** The Big Picture: The Money Network ***
*** The Big Picture: 10 Twitter Do’s and Don’t ***
*** FT Alphaville: Cut out and keep – Portugal aid timetable ***
*** FT Alphaville: Europe stress test benchmarks and banks revealed [updated] ***
*** Calculated Risk: House Prices: Nominal, Real, Price-to-Rent ***
U.S. railroads originated 305,905 carloads, up 5.4% compared with the same week in 2010 and up 1.4% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was 2.0%.
Working gas in storage fell 45 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 52 Bcf.
Storage level is 90 Bcf lower than same time year ago and bellow 5-year average
Worst performing commodity, keeping close watch, but no signs that will change in the near future (jet).
Goldman Sachs’s Jim O’Neill on markets…
Main development since latest weekly is realization that light sweet Libyan crude can’t really be substituted by Saudi Arabia and market is in short supply.
Additional to Libyan war, we have unrest in Yemen, strikes in Gabon and postponed elections in Nigeria. Combined these three countries produce 2.8 million bbl of light sweet crude per day.
Absent of a stock market crash, crude oil is bound only up.
*** FT Alphaville: Portugal to seek EU aid ***
*** FT Alphaville: Deflated inflation expectations ***
*** FT Alphaville: Vix up, look Sharpe* ***
*** FT Alphaville: Vix wagging ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: The Past Three Years of the Silver Bears ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Breadth Needs a Pause ***
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 382.000 vs. 385.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 392.000.
Four weeks moving mostly unchanged in the last 5 readings.
ECB raised key benchmark rate to 1.25% from 1.00%.