Global Macro Perspectives
“It’s quite striking how complex civilizations can fall apart really, really quickly… we seem at the moment, bombarded by shock events,” Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard University and author of ‘The Ascent of Money’ told CNBC on Western civilization.
Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant Reactor 3 explosion on March 14, 2011.
*** Bloomberg: Japan Battles Nuclear Meltdown as Millions Without Power, Water ***
*** Bloomberg: Japan Adds $183 Billion to Economy, Doubles Asset Purchases ***
*** The Big Picture: Japan’s Emergency Warning System Gave 30 Seconds Quake Warning ***
*** FT Alphaville: Super-catastrophe and super-banking risk ***
*** FT Alphaville: Greek debt: restructured ***
*** Newsweek: How to Get Gaddafi ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – In the Silver Pit No One Can Hear You Screaming ***
*** Kid Dynamite’s World: PSLV – Sprott Registers to Sell – Sold To You Sucka ***
Baltic dry index rose 16.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 32.5%; Panamax Index rose 7.5%; Supramax Index increased 4.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.7%.
Judging from increase in dry bulk rates and an end of raw materials stockpiling economic activity in China is accelerating after the holidays. Iron ore, steel and thermal coal prices down on increased stockpiles.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 26; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 17.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs rose for 100 in February.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was unchanged.
Japan earthquake effects: I seems that Japanese crude oil demand will initially fall because one fifth of Japanese refinery capacity is offline, but subsequently will rise fast because only possible substitution to nuclear electricity generation (one fourth off-line and years needed to bring it back on-line) is gas and oil-fired generation. Product demand (residual fuel oil and diesel fuel especially) will rise fast in coming days.
To sum up, near term positive for product tankers, negative for crude oil carriers. Longer term positive for both. Positive for LNG carriers.
Richard Koo on Japan “lost decade” experience and lessons learned on balance sheet recessions and quantitative easing.
U.S. retail sales were reported at 1.0% in February, right at consensus. January reading was at +0.7% (revised from +0.3%). On year level retail sales are up 8.4%.
*** FT Alphaville: Japan, a quake update ***
*** FT Alphaville: Earthquake – from Japan to the States, and back again ***
*** FT Alphaville: Japan’s uncool problem ***
*** FT Alphaville: Insurance in the ring of fire ***
*** FT Alphaville: Meanwhile in Europe… ***
*** The Big Picture: Kobe Earthquake’s Impact on the Nikkei and $/Yen ***
*** unexpectedutility.com: Forecasting Yesterday ***
*** CNBC: Saudi Arabian Unrest: Thumbnail Summary of a Potential Crisis ***
U.S. railroads originated 300,953 carloads, up 5.5% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 0.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was 1.6%.
Working gas in storage fell 71 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 78 Bcf.
Storage level is 48 Bcf higher than same time year ago.
March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading was reported at 68.2 vs. 76.3 consensus and 77.5 February reading.
China fixed asset investments were up 24.9% y-o-y in February; the consensus was at 23.0%. January reading was not reported.
China retail sales rose 11.6% in February vs. 19.0% consensus. January reading was not reported.
Industrial production in China was up 14.9% y-o-y in February; January reading was apparently not reported. The consensus was at 13.0%.