March 22nd, 2011 by Belisarius
*** The Slope Of Hope: Currency Crossroads ***
*** FT Alphaville: The wrong kind of inflation, the ironic austerity ***
*** FT Alphaville: Japan: Supply chain update ***
*** FT Alphaville: Japan’s supply-chain loss, Europe’s gain? ***
*** FT Alphaville: Why no Canadian, Australian housing busts? ***
*** Wired: Possible Early Warning Sign for Market Crashes ***
*** The Big Picture: Are huge earthquakes linked? ***
*** Bloomberg: Nuclear Plant Contaminates Sea After Damage to Fuel Rods ***
*** Climateer Investing: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: “Safe nuclear does exist, and China is leading the way with thorium” ***
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March 21st, 2011 by Belisarius
Sales of existing homes in U.S. fell 9.6% to 4.88 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 5.12 million.
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March 21st, 2011 by Belisarius
*** FT Alphaville: Tokyo: A view from the ground, Part II ***
*** London Banker: Solution for Fukushima Cooling Pools ***
*** London Banker: “You can’t build a car with 97% of the parts” ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: El-Erian (1): world near tipping point? ***
*** FT Alphaville: China’s missing M2 ***
*** FT Alphaville: Watching Japan’s return from Oz ***
*** The Big Picture: Risk On/Risk Off Trade Returns ***
*** Harvey Organ’s Daily: Crisis in Japan Deepens/G7 comes to financial rescue with Japan ***
*** Association for Psychological Science: Are the Wealthiest Countries the Smartest Countries? ***
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March 21st, 2011 by Belisarius
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February was reported at -0.04 vs. revised January reading of 0.01. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at 0.11.
CFNAI is pointing to mild economic growth.
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March 21st, 2011 by Belisarius
Baltic dry index fell 2.0% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.8%; Panamax Index fell 1.8%; Supramax Index rose 2.9%; Handysize Index was up 3.4%.
To repeat: Judging from increase in dry bulk rates and an end of raw materials stockpiling economic activity in China is accelerating after the holidays.
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March 21st, 2011 by Belisarius
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.8%.
Markets adapted well to the new setup (ex. Libyan oil and with increased Japanese product demand), risk is on the downside.
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March 21st, 2011 by Belisarius
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 12; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 7.
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March 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
U.S. railroads originated 392,164 carloads, up 1.5% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 3.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -2.9%.
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March 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
Working gas in storage fell 56 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 42 Bcf.
Storage level is 3 Bcf higher than same time year ago.
Japanese nuclear disaster could be a game changer for natural gas as LNG cargoes bound for the U.S. could be diverted to Japan. This could clear the oversupply glut.
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March 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
*** Zero Hedge: Historical Precedent To Predict The Success Rate Of The G7 Yen Devaluation “Accord” ***
*** Zero Hedge: Fed Confirms First FX Market Intervention In 11 Years As Effects Start To Fizzle ***
*** FT Beyond BRICs: EM fund flows: backing off ***
*** FT Alphaville: Who’s been buying Japan like crazy? ***
*** FT Alphaville: Yen volatility is too much for one bank ***
*** FT Alphaville: Those European stress test details ***
*** FT Alphaville: The usual Portuguese bond gyrations ***
*** The Economist: Miracle, or delayed gratification? ***
*** Bloomberg: Sushi Restaurants Drop Japanese Fish From Menus as Radiation Concerns Grow ***
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March 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
Talking about strange twist of events… Markets not buying the story.
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March 18th, 2011 by Belisarius
China raised bank reserve requirement from 19.5% to 20% for large banks. I’m beginning to take kind of bearish stance on China because this sort of measures does not bode well for fixed-asset investment fueled economic growth.
Japan earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disaster nagative effect on Chinese manufacturing is also, in my opinion, widely underestimated.
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March 17th, 2011 by Belisarius
The United Nations Security Council approved a resolution authorizing international military intervention (any measures short of a ground invasion) in Libya.
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March 17th, 2011 by Belisarius
Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index rose to 43.4. Consensus was at 32.0, prior reading was at 35.9.
This is a positive outlier, it is highly unlikely that index can remain at these levels. Manufacturing surveys overestimate implied industrial growth in recent months.
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March 17th, 2011 by Belisarius
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., discusses the potenial impact of last week’s 9-magnitude earthquake and tsunami in Japan on the U.S. and global economies. El-Erian speaks from Newport Beach, California, with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)
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