Morning Reading – Wednesday, March 23, 2011
FT Alphaville: Has global economic growth peaked?
I suspect that global activity growth has probably peaked for the current mini-cycle, but that is entirely because the growth rate is declining in China and some other emerging Asian economies. (Actually, all of the Brics seems to be slowing.) There has been no sign yet of any peak in the growth rate in the US or continental Europe.
FT Alphaville: ‘The Central Bank of Benghazi’
For a market missing some high-quality Libyan oil and wondering what happens if there’s going to be a long civil war there, here is a highly interesting development.
We think Libya’s rebels now have to a way to access oil cash, and therefore it could also be a way for Libyan oil to come back to the market even if Gaddafi stays on.
FT Alphaville: Egypt reopens for business
The Egyptian stock exchange has reopened for business on Wednesday morning but not without a hiccup or two.
FT Alphaville: Yemen matters
But Yemen and the risk of its implosion matters more to oil markets than a quick glance at these stats suggests. (Obviously, it also matters for other reasons, too.) Here are three reasons we’ve picked up, though there could well be more.
The Oil And The Glory: Back to Saudi’s fault lines
The oil balance is back on precarious footing. The shift of events in Yemen — President Ali Abdullah Saleh seems to be spending his final hours or days in office (see defectors above) — returns instability to Saudi Arabia’s doorstep, and with it may push oil prices higher.
The Big Picture: Should You Buy a Home? Looking (Again) at Housing
I posted a video of my pal James Altucher on Yahoo Tech Ticker this week, declaring he was “Never going to buy a home ever again!”
Whenever I hear that sort of declaration, it tells me we are closer to the end of down cycle than the beginning. The psychology is reaching a negative extreme, and that means we are nearer to a capitulation.
self-evident: ESM / EFSF: An Inverted Capital Structure
I’ve been meaning to write about this for quite some time, but it’s been really hard to have the time to sit down and do it. I’ve let perfect be the enemy of good and so here I’ll try to lay out a rough sketch of what I think are some of the possible risks of the EFSF / ESM.