Global Macro Perspectives
*** FT Energy Source Blog: Revolutions could rob Opec of its ability to manipulate supply ***
*** FT Energy Source Blog: If Libya revolts, Saudi Arabia could be next ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Libya’s threat to oil supplies ***
*** FT Alphaville: Michael Pettis on China’s very own zaiteku ***
*** FT Alphaville:China bears and creative shorting ***
*** Macro Man: Flatulent dictators and the Fed ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Heigh Ho, Channel! ***
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the impact of political protests in Middle East and North African nations, including Libya, on the global economy.
Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey was reported today at 25.0. Prior reading was at 18.0, consensus was also at 18.0.
To repeat: Looks like industrial production will continue expanding.
Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 70.4 vs. 65.0 consensus and 64.8 reading for December (revised from 60.6).
Large positive surprise. Highest reading in three years.
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite fell 0.4%; On year level 20 city index is down 2.4%.
Libya in unrest/civil war is having a mayor impact on the oil markets. Crude oil (brent) has yesterday reached post crisis high of 108.7 USD/bbl. The outcome of the Libya crisis is absolutely uncertain and together with other regional instability will be a strong factor for rising oil prices.
High oil price does not bode well with economic growth, so this could be large negative factor for economic growth and inflation.
According to OPEC January data Libya produces approximately 1.6 million barrels of crude per day. This is 3.9% of total OPEC production and 1.8% of world total demand.