New Week Intro – January 9, 2011
Weekly economic calendar.
Archive for January, 2011
Tanker Weekly – January 9, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 25.3% in last two weeks; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 18.4% in the same period.
To repeat: Large oversupply of ships in the Gulf. Somewhat strange that cost of shipping fell so much during crude oil price rally.
Evening Reading – January 7, 2011
*** Fortune: Is Fannie bailing out the banks? ***
*** New York Magazine: Lloyd Blankfein’s Secret Facebook Feed ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Everything is Just Super! ***
*** FT Alphaville: Bernanke bashes the budget ***
*** FT Alphaville: Sovereign CDS, un petit complexe de Napoléon ***
*** FT Alphaville: And the financials all went down on Massachusetts ***
*** FT Alphaville: Peak smokes ***
*** FT Alphaville: Ill(inois) behaviour in the municipal markets [updated] ***
*** FT Alphaville: The Irish covered bond exception ***
*** FT Money Supply: PBIGS? ***
*** The Big Picture: Top 10 greatest trades of all time (?) ***
*** The Big Picture: A Victory for Rule of law, Property Rights ***
*** The Big Picture: Succinct Summation of Week’s Events ***
Baltic Dry Index At 1519, Down 1.6%
Down 1.6%.
December Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 103.000; Unemployment Rate At 9.4%
Nonfarm payrolls rose 103.000 in December. The consensus was at 160.000, November reading was an increase of 71.000 (revised +42.000). The unemployment was reported at 9.4% vs. prior reading of 9.8% and consensus of 9.7%.
Private payrolls were up 113.000 vs. 180.000 consensus and 79.000 reading in November (revised +29.000).
Average weekly hours worked for private employees stayed unchanged at 34.3.
Huge miss in both nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls. Unemployment rate fell on reduced participation in labor force (lowest since ’80s). All in all weak report, especially having in mind rosy sunglasses sentiment.
Morning Reading – January 7, 2011
*** The Big Picture: What Does Today’s NFP Mean to Markets? ***
*** The Big Picture: Would a Time Machine Help Investors? ***
*** Calculated Risk: Employment Report Preview ***
*** Calculated Risk: Survey: Small Business Hiring Likely to Improve in 2011 ***
*** FT Alphaville: Happy new year from the Eurozone ***
*** FT Alphaville: Ashes to Ashes for the UK stock market? ***
*** FT Alphaville: The uncertainty premium in Spanish, Portuguese banks = 12 ratings notches ***
*** FT Alphaville: The Fed in 2011 ***
Evening Reading – January 6, 2010 – XXL Bear Edition
*** FT Alphaville: Burdensharing for bank bondholders is here! ***
*** FT Alphaville: President Trichet are you watching? ***
*** FT Alphaville: The Belgians are still waffling ***
*** FT Alphaville: Shadow inventory backlog still growing ***
*** FT Alphaville: What the China risk is ***
*** FT Alphaville: Lowering claims, lowering expectations ***
*** FT Alphaville: Japan: land of rising contrasts ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Brazil: another currency salvo ***
*** The Big Picture: Volcker Resigns ***
*** The Big Picture: Can Banks Foreclose on Mortgages They Do Not Own? ***
*** The Big Picture: SPX Index Secular Markets (1900-2010) ***
*** Macro Man: 2011 Non-Predictions 3 – Rates ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Weekly Commitment of Traders Report – Week Ending 12/28 ***
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – January 6, 2011
Working gas in storage fell 135 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 130 Bcf.
Although the draw was above consensus, it’s a disappointment overall as storage level is only 21 Bcf lower than same time year ago. In short – a replay of last’s year oversupply.
Baltic Dry Index At 1544, Down 4.8%
Yes…Queensland commodity exports are frozen because of floods, but nevertheless this is looking quite ugly.
Monster Employment Index For December At 130
Monster Employment Index fell to 130 in December; November reading was at 134.
Monster Employment Index is a gauge for online job demand; so no confirmation of ADP reading here.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 409.000; Up 18.000
nitial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported right at 409.000 vs. 412.000 consensus; last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 391.000.
Previous reading which was bellow 400.000 was after all a product of seasonal effects. Taking ADP employment into account we can say that U.S. economy is crating jobs at faster pace, but the pace of job losses is also faster than long term average. Even with this improved equation of job creation and job losses the inflow of people into work force will keep unemployment high for some time.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – January 6, 2011
Crude oil stocks fell 4.2 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 3.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased 1.4 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were down 2.7 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 3.4 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 6.3 million barrels lower for the week.
Refinery utilization rose 0.2% to 88.0%.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports fell 1.3 million barrels to 7.9 million barrels.
Demand is mostly unchanged; stocks are falling on increased exports and smaller imports.
Going into new year crude oil stocks will probably rise on refiner restocking.
Morning Reading – January 6, 2011
*** PIMCO //William H. Gross: Off With Our Heads! ***
*** The Wall Street Journal // Deal Journal: You Decide: Goldman’s Facebook Pitch or Nigerian Email ‘Opportunity’ ***
*** The Big Picture: Surprise! Ratings Agencies Still Suck! ***
*** Mandel on Innovation and Growth: A Bizarre Labor Market (with data) ***
*** FT Alphaville: Europe’s 2011 pressure points ***
*** FT Alphaville: Waiting for a senior bank bond haircut… ***
*** FT Alphaville: Does RBS need to take an Irish hit? ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Indian food: even more expensive ***
Baltic Tanker Indexes Collapse During Hollidays
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 21.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 17.4% during the holidays.
Large oversupply of ships in the Gulf. Somewhat strange that cost of shipping fell do much during crude oil price rally.
Baltic Dry Index At 1693, Down 4.3%
Baltic Dry Index fell 4.3% today while Queensland floods worsened.