Evening Reading -December 8, 2010
FT Alphaville on U.S. and European sovereign bonds * BeyondBRICs on Vale Hong Kong listing * Calculated Risk on commercial real estate * The Big Picture on amusing Google
Archive for December, 2010
MBA Mortgage Applications Down 0.9%
MBA mortgage applications fell 0.9%; Prior reading was a decrease of 16.5%; On year level MBA Basic Index is down 9.3%.
MBA Refinancing index fell -1.4%; Prior reading was a decrease of 21.6%; On year level MBA Refinancing Index is down 8.0%.
MBA Purchase Index rose 1.8%. Prior reading was in increase of 1.1.%; On year level MBA Purchase Index is down 12.7%.
Bond Market Challenging FED Goals?
The bond sell-off was much hyped across the media and various commentators have provided various explanations. From my point of view all of the reason’s given don’t make much sense. So, we’ll have to wait and see if something meaningful comes along.
I’ll only repeat the famous phrase ” Don’t fight the FED”, especially taking into account that they (FED) have proved that they are capable of doing everything needed to achieve their goals.
Morning Reading – December 8, 2010
FT Alphaville on (third) failed German government bond auction and yesterday’s sell-off in the U.S. treasuries * Macro Man on gold and (again) yesterday’s sell-off in the U.S. treasuries * Econbrowser on correlation between money base growth and inflation * Calculated Risk on tax cuts and (extended) unemployment benefits and * The New York Times on tax cuts.
Evening Reading – December 7, 2010
Alphaville on potentially two-tired Italian interbank market and coming (again) European stress tests; BeyondBRICs on Chinese and world education; The Big Picture comparing 2005 and 2009 rallies; The Slope Of Hope on silver and Calculated risk on job market.
Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index Rose 0.4% In November
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose 0.4% in November after falling o.6% in October.
Morning Reading – December 7, 2010
Value Expectations on S&P 500 revenue growth; Distressed Debt Investing on High Yield Strategy; Business Insider (Doug Short) on Inflation; Alphaville on tax cuts; BeyondBRICs on China credit growth goals and Macro Man on gold vs. real interest rates.
Monthly Strategy – Holiday Edition – December 2010
In the last months global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see signs of personal consumption and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Fall in initial jobless claims is clearly being offset by inflow of people into the workforce; job creation still weak.
Evening Reading – December 6, 2010
News from the the future (2013): After receiving a 30% haircut Greece debt to GDP ratio is at 112%. Sustainable…o yeah.
More on ECB peripheral Europe bond purchases; help Tim from The Slope Of Hope win a Nissan LEAF.
Morning Reading – December 6, 2010
China, next crisis and U.S. bank failures…
Dry Bulk Weekly – December 6, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 7.7%; Panamax Index rose 2.2%; Supramax Index rose 7.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.6%.
Stockpiles of iron ore and steel are falling, so we have no prof of falling demand in China (jet). I still expect Chinese buyers returning to the market and propping rates.
New Week Intro December 6, 2010
Important U.S. economic data; Important U.S. earnings this week.
“Helicopter Ben” On CBS 60 Minutes
Summary: Economy is barely expanding at a sustainable pace; Will print more money if needed.
Tanker Weekly – December 4, 2010
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 14.2%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 8.9%.
I would speculate that China resumed its imports pace and propped rates.
U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – December 4, 2010
U.S. railroads originated 254,121 carloads, up 3.2% compared with the same week in 2009 and down 14.3% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +14.2%.
Thanksgiving week contributing to slower traffic.