Tainted Alpha

(For November 2010)

Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 7.7% in November compared with 8.6% reading in October and 8.0% consensus. Rises in property prices are contained by Chinese government measures.

Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price y-o-y

China trade balance was reported at USD 22.9 billion vs. USD 27.2 billion in October. Export and import growth were running at 34.9 and 37.7 percent.

The accumulated surplus is now at USD 171.5 billion vs. USD 179.7 billion for the same last year and full year 2009 USD 196 billion.

Chart 2. China Trade Balance; Export & Import Growth

The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 19.5% YoY in November vs. 19.1% consensus and 19.3% growth in October. Slight tick up in money supply growth.

Chart 3. China Monetary Aggregates

China new loans rose CNY 564.0 billion in November vs. CNY 587.7 billion in October and consensus of CNY 500.0 billion. Total new loans for this year are currently at CNY 7.4 trillion; 99% of the annual target. POBC will not live up to its target.

Chart 4. China New Loans Issuance

China Consumer Price Index was up 5.1% in November vs. 4.7% consensus. October reading was at  4.4%. China Producer Price Index was up 6.1% in November vs. 5.1% consensus. October reading was at  5.0%.

Chart 5. Consumer & Producer Price Indexes

China retail sales rose 18.7% in November vs. 18.7% consensus and 18.6% growth in October.

Chart 6. China Retail Sales Growth

China fixed asset investments rose 24.9% In November; the consensus was at 24.3%, October reading was 24.4%.

Chart 7. China Fixed Assets Investment

Overall only (negative) surprise was inflation; I still believe only way to contain inflation is through interest rate rise which is obviously the last choice for the POBC.

China CPI, China Exports, China Fixed Assets Investment, China Imports, China Loan Issuance, China Money Supply, China NDRC Property Price Index, China PPI, China Retail Sales, China Trade Balance

This entry was posted on Monday, December 13th, 2010 at 4:12 am and is filed under China. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.