Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending October 8, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 10.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.3%. Probably a short term mismatch (strike in France) in supply and demand pushed dirty rates up. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending October 2, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 299,394 carloads, up 7.8% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 6.9% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.5%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending October 1, 2010 was reported down 7.0%. Prior reading was at -7.8%.. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Nonfarm payrolls fell 95.000 in September. The consensus was at -8.000, August reading was revised (-3.000) decrease of 57.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.6% vs. prior reading of 9.6% and consensus of 9.7%. Private payrolls were up 64.000 vs. 85.000 consensus and 67.000 reading in August. Average weekly hours worked for private employees remain […]
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 85 Bcf from previous week. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average
(For The Week Ending October 2, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 445.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 456.000. Next weeks will be crucial, if the improvements continue this could be quite positive for U.S. economy. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 3.1 million barrels for the week ending October 1, 2010; Gasoline stocks fell 2.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 1.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.6 million barrels; Other oils stocks were up 1.0 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were […]
(For September 2010) ADP Employment fell 39,000 in September vs. revised (up 20,000) gain of 10,000 in August. Consensus was at +20,000. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday (rule of thumb) will be negative, probably missing -54.000 consensus. Unemployment will rise. Chart 1. ADP Employment
(For September 2010) Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 37,151 in September vs. 34,768 in August. Chart 1. Challenger Job-Cut Report
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 0.2% , prior reading was a decrease of 0.8.%. Refinance index fell 2.5%; Purchase index rose 9.3%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
This months strategy is a little bit late because your favorite blogger is feeling (a bit) nihilistic in the last weeks. We have had a nice run in September in almost all asset classes. Reasons: recent economic data is not deteriorating as fast as feared and the central bankers determination to extend monetary stimulus is stronger […]
(For September 2010) ISM Non- Manufacturing Index was reported at 53.2 vs. 52.0 consensus and 51.5 reading in July. Chart 1. ISM Non- Manufacturing Index
(For August 2010) U.S. factory orders fell 0.5% in August. The consensus was at -0.3%, prior reading was at 0.1%. Factory shipments fell 0.6%, July reading was at 1.2%. We have gap in the making between orders and shipments. Chart 1. U.S. Manufacturers New Orders & Shipments
(For August 2010) Pending home sales index rose 4.3% in August vs. revised rise of 4.5% in July. On year level, the index is down 20.1%, Chart 1. Pending Home Sales Index
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 14; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 5. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count