Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) U.S. producer price index rose 0.4% in September vs. 0.1% consensus. August reading was also at 0.4%. On year level PPI is up 4.0%. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Index Food & energy taken out U.S. producer price index rose 0.1% in September. The consensus and prior reading were also at 0.1%. On year level core PPI […]
(For The Week Ending October 9, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 462.000. The consensus was at 445.000, last week revised (up 4.000) reading was at 449.000. It’s not improving after all… Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
This is nice: World Debt Clock.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell 0.5% in September after falling 1.0% in August. Press release. The decline indicates four consecutive months of limited to no increases in over the road movement of produce, raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods since the PCI peaked in May 2010. Moreover, the PCI forecasts GDP growth in […]
(For September 2010) The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 19.0% YoY in September vs. 18.9% consensus and 19.2% growth in August. Slight tick up in money supply growth. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates China new loans rose CNY 595.5 billion in September vs. CNY 545.2 billion in August and consensus of CNY 500.0 billion. Total […]
(For September 2010) China trade balance was reported at USD 16.9 billion vs. USD 20.0 billion in August. Export and import growth were running at 25.1 and 24.1 percent. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 121.4 billion vs. USD 136.6 billion for the same last year and full year 2009 USD 196 billion. Chinese economy at exact place […]
You should read this. Naked Capitalism: Josh Rosner: “Could Violations of PSA’s Dwarf Lehman Weekend?”.
Nothing special here, FOMC is determinate to provide further monetary stimulus by purchasing longer-dated treasuries. The question which they debated on is whether to provide these measures in case the speed of growth doesn’t pick up or in case the economic condition worsen. My take is, I would not bet that they will announce asset buying programe during November meeting, and […]
(For August 2010) China Vehicle sales were at 1.32 million; up 16.1% y-o-y and up 6.3% m-o-m. Sales are 23.8% down from March high. China domestic consumption is not rising fast enough to enable China shifting away from export driven growth model. Chart 1. China Car Sales
We still don’t have any reaction from the markets on recent issues with mortgage documentation and to be frank I still don’t know what to think on all that. In terms of housing market possibilities are: 1. This all is overblown and the number of mortgages with defective legal documents is insignificant. 2. Number of mortgages with defective legal documents is […]
This is absolutely great.
(For The Week Ending October 8, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 3; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 9. On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 35 rigs in September. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes […]
Baltic dry index rose 10.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 19.2%; Panamax Index fell 0.4%; Supramax Index rose 2.8%; Handysize Index was down 0.5%. So, capesizes again leading. Strong iron ore demand from China. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday, October 11 Healthcare Services Group (HCSG) Consolidated Graphics (CGX) Zep (ZEP) Global Payments (GPN) Tuesday, October 12 CSX (CSX) Fastenal (FAST) Intel (INTC) Wednesday, October 13 JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) ADTRAN (ADTN) Universal Forest Products (UFPI) Apollo Group (APOL) WD-40 Company (WDFC) Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) Bank […]
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is fictionalized biography of Jesse Livermore – to this day one of most famous financial speculators of all time. In short, Mr. Livermore started trading at young age; he earned first $1,000 at age of fifteen; during his life he experienced major successes and failures; he earned $3,000,000 and $100,000,000 (something like $1.3 billion […]