Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% in September. The consensus was at 0.3%, prior revised reading (from +0.3%) was at 0.1%. On year level LEI is up 6.0% vs. 6.8% in August. This is uber-Keynesian indicator as 43% of its value is derived from monetary factors (M2 and interest rate spread). […]
(For October 2010) Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index rose to 1.0. The consensus was at 2.0, prior reading at -0.7. Slightly improved, but still close to contraction. Chart 1. ISM vs. Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 0.7 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 1.2 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 2.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 0.7 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 0.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.0 million barrels lower than the week […]
(For The Week Ending October 16, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 452.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 13.000) reading was at 475.000. Big revision… Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For September 2010) China fixed asset investments rose 24.5% In September; the consensus was at 24.6%, August reading was 24.8%. This is obviously under control. Chart 1. China Fixed Assets Investment
(For September 2010) Industrial production in China rose 13.3% y-o-y in September; August reading was at 13.9%. The consensus was at 14.0%. PMI’s were wrong…. Chart 1. China Industrial Production vs. China PMI’s
(For September 2010) China retail sales rose 18.8% in September vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.4% growth in August. Chart 1. China Retail Sales Growth
(For September 2010) China Consumer Price Index was up 3.6% in September, again right at the consensus. August reading was at 3.5%. China Producer Price Index was up 4.3% in September, same as in August. Consensus was at 4.1%. Again, most of the consumer price increase came from food. Both of the inflation measures rose significantly on m-o-m […]
(For Q3 2010) China third quarter GDP growth was reported at 9.6%, slowing down from second quarter growth rate of 10.3%. Most of the slowdown can be attributed to fixed-asset investment slowdown. I have to say I expected a stronger figure given recent rise in benchmark interest rate, so I conclude that the rate increase is mainly […]
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 10.5% , prior reading was an increase of 14.6.%. Refinance index fell 11.2%; Purchase index fell 6.7%. This looks quite negative, not sure if it is connected with foreclosure mess. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Bloomberg story: Pimco, New York Fed Said to Seek BofA Repurchase of Mortgages. Pacific Investment Management Co., BlackRock Inc. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are seeking to force Bank of America Corp. to repurchase soured mortgages packaged into $47 billion of bonds by its Countrywide Financial Corp. unit, people familiar with the […]
(For August 2010) Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index fell 3.3% in August and it is now running at -7.6% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index
(For September 2010) U.S. housing starts in September rose 0.3% to 610.000 vs. revised (10.000 higher) 608.000 August reading. The consensus was at 580.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are up 4.1% Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Number of building permits issued in the U.S. in August fell 5.6% to 539.000. The consensus was at 575.000. On year […]
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 5; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 5. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
(For September 2010) Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 9.1% in September compared with 9.3% reading in August and 8.8% consensus. Chinese government has put the price increases under control. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price y-o-y