Global Macro Perspectives
(For October 2010) Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey came out today at 5. The consensus was at 1.0, prior reading at -2. We could probably see improved ISM manufacturing reading for October. Chart 1. ISM vs. Richmond Fed and Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For October 2010) Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 50.2 vs. 49.9 consensus and 48.6 revised reading for September. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
No recovery in sight, but also the price declines are not worrying (jet). Chart 1. U.S. House Price Indexes
(For August 2010) Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite fell 0.2% In August; On year level 10 city index is up 2.5%. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite fell 0.3%; On year level 20 city index is up 1.7%. Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 This is three month rolling average for […]
Bloomberg story: Treasury Draws Negative Yield for First Time During TIPS Sale. The Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative yield for the first time at a U.S. debt auction as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be successful in sparking inflation.
(For September 2010) China Leading Index came unchanged from August; on year level the index is down 3.1%. Chart 1. China Leading Index vs. China GDP Quarterly Growth Chart 2. China Leading Index y-o-y Growth vs. China GDP Quarterly Growth Q3 GDP growth looks rich versus leading index; Q4 GDP growth could edge lower… China Leading Index […]
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs remained unchanged; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
(For September 2010) Sales of existing homes in U.S. rose 10.0% to 4.53 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 4.3 million. Chart 1. U.S. Existing Home Sales Total housing inventory is at 4.04 million units down from 4.12 million in August. Months supply fell from 12.0 to 10.7 months. Chart 2. U.S. Existing Home Sales Inventory & […]
(For September 2010) Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September was reported at -0.58 vs. revised August reading of -0.49. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.33. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun. Another […]
Baltic dry index fell 1.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 0.6%; Panamax Index fell 1.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.6%; Handysize Index was down 4.4%. Not much happening here. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. Iron Ore Inventory At Chinese […]
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.9%. I can repeat last week’s comment: “Even though the strike in France keeps vessels employed (at anchor) – the market is still oversupplied. Rates are bellow operating costs.” Bloomberg story: Supertankers Face Two-Year Losing Streak as […]
Important U.S. economic data: Prior Consensus Monday, October 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.53 -0.3 Existing Home Sales 4.13 M 4.3 M Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity -17.7 -8.5 Tuesday, October 26 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Redbook S&P Case-Shiller HPI -0.2% -0.13% Consumer Confidence 48.5 49.5 FHFA House Price Index -0.5% -0.2% Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index […]
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 303,664 carloads, up 10.2% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 4.6% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +2.2%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending October 15, 2010 was reported down 7.0%. Prior reading was revised downwards for -0.1% to -7.0%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 93 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 88 Bcf. Storage just keeps on rising futures more and more oversold. It has to end at some time… Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average […]