Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending October 23, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 302,855 carloads, up 9.6% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 5.4% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.3%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads
(For October 2010) October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading was reported at 67.7 vs. 68.0 consensus and 67.9 prior October reading. Unchanged level of confidence. Chart 1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For October 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 60.6. The consensus was at 58.0, prior reading at 60.4. Regional manufacturing surveys signal improvements in October. Using rule of thumb I would say that industrial production in October will be unchanged. Chart 1. ISM vs. Chicago PMI and Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For Q3 2010) U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.0%, right at consensus. Q2 reading was at +1.7%. This is a big argument against new massive round of QE. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP Growth