Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) China Leading Index came unchanged from August; on year level the index is down 3.1%. Chart 1. China Leading Index vs. China GDP Quarterly Growth Chart 2. China Leading Index y-o-y Growth vs. China GDP Quarterly Growth Q3 GDP growth looks rich versus leading index; Q4 GDP growth could edge lower… China Leading Index […]
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs remained unchanged; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
(For September 2010) Sales of existing homes in U.S. rose 10.0% to 4.53 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 4.3 million. Chart 1. U.S. Existing Home Sales Total housing inventory is at 4.04 million units down from 4.12 million in August. Months supply fell from 12.0 to 10.7 months. Chart 2. U.S. Existing Home Sales Inventory & […]
(For September 2010) Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September was reported at -0.58 vs. revised August reading of -0.49. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.33. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun. Another […]
Baltic dry index fell 1.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 0.6%; Panamax Index fell 1.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.6%; Handysize Index was down 4.4%. Not much happening here. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. Iron Ore Inventory At Chinese […]
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.9%. I can repeat last week’s comment: “Even though the strike in France keeps vessels employed (at anchor) – the market is still oversupplied. Rates are bellow operating costs.” Bloomberg story: Supertankers Face Two-Year Losing Streak as […]
Important U.S. economic data: Prior Consensus Monday, October 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.53 -0.3 Existing Home Sales 4.13 M 4.3 M Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity -17.7 -8.5 Tuesday, October 26 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Redbook S&P Case-Shiller HPI -0.2% -0.13% Consumer Confidence 48.5 49.5 FHFA House Price Index -0.5% -0.2% Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index […]