Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index Falls 0.5% In September
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell 0.5% in September after falling 1.0% in August.
The decline indicates four consecutive months of limited to no increases in over the road movement of produce, raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods since the PCI peaked in May 2010. Moreover, the PCI forecasts GDP growth in the third quarter of 2010 at an anemic 0.7 percent to 1.7 percent, below the PCI’s previous 1.5 to 2.5 percent estimate reported last month (which at the time approximated the consensus economic view). The PCI forecast of the Federal Reserve’s monthly Industrial Production (IP) index (to be released later this month) also signals IP growth for September to be very close to zero with an even odds chance for a negative number.
The index is designed to track diesel fuel consumption in real-time to serve as an industrial production proxy.
Chat 1. Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index
