Global Macro Perspectives
Nonfarm payrolls fell 54.000 in August. The consensus was at -105.000, revised reading for June was a decrease of 54.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.6% vs prior reading of 9.5% and consensus of 9.6%. Average weekly hours worked for private employees rose 0.3% to 34.2. Positive surprise. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate […]
Equities Economic data released in recent month or so is on a absolute and relative basis weak. The difference from July is that the consensus has moved downwards, so the markets focuses on comparing actual data with consensus and disregarding absolute levels. But we are here to earn some money, not waste our time on […]
(For The Week Ending August 27, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 54 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 55 Bcf. Stockpiling will be higher in the following weeks (mild temperatures) so the supply/demand balance will be better then last year, but altogether bad. This points that we have only technical factors on our side, […]
(For July 2010) Pending home sales index rose 5.2% in July vs. revised fall of 2.8% in June. Chart 1. Pending Home Sales Index
(For July 2010) U.S. factory orders rose 0.1% in July. The consensus was at 0.3%, prior reading was at -1.2%. Factory shipments rose 1.1%, June reading was at -0.5%. Chart 1. U.S. Manufacturers New Orders & Shipments
(For August 2010) Monster Employment Index fell to 136 in August; July reading was at 138. Charts 1. Monster Employment Index
(For July 2010) I forgot to post this yesterday. U.S. construction spending fell 1.0% MoM in July vs. -0.6% consensus and revised 0.8% fall in June. On year level we are at -10.7%. Lowest level in 10 years. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending
(For The Week Ending August 27, 2010) Initial jobless claims were reported at 472.000. The consensus was at 475.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 478.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For The Week Ending August 27) Crude oil stocks rose 3.4 million barrels for the week ending August 27; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.2 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.7 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 1.5 million barrels; Other oils stocks were up 2.3 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 4.0 million barrels […]
(For August 2010) U.S. total motor vehicle sales for August fell 0.48 million units to 11.46 million SAAR. Market share of domestic producers fell 1.8% to 75.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Chart 2. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Domestic vs. Foreign Market Share
ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 56.3 vs. prior reading of 55.5 and consensus of 52.8. Strange. Somebody knew… Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia and Empire State Manufacturing Surveys
Till we get the actual number…. The consensus is at 52.8. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia and Empire State Manufacturing Surveys
(For August 2010) ADP Employment fell 10,000 in August vs. revised rise of 37,000 in July. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday will be negative, probably missing a -80.000 consensus. Chart 1. ADP Employment
(For August 2010) Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 34,768 in August vs. 41,676 in July. Chart 1. Challenger Job-Cut Report
(For The Week Ending August 27, 2010) MBA mortgage applications rose 2.7% , prior reading was an increase of 4.9.%. Refinance index rose 2.8%; Purchase index rose 1.8%. Only refinances, no change in purchase applications. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications