Global Macro Perspectives
This is an essential book for everyone who wants to take deeper look into option trading world, especially from practical (trader) standpoint. The book provides: an overview of option basics (both theoretical and practical), an overview of basic option trading strategies and introduces the concept of delta neutral trading. The author avoids all the big formulas we were taught at faculty and focuses […]
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 10, 2010 was reported down 9.2%. Prior reading was at -10.1%. Out of the recession territory. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For September 2010) University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment for September came out at 66.6 vs. 70.0 consensus and 68.9 August reading. Another weak reading, consumer don’t feel like spending. Weakest reading since August 2009. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
(For August 2010) U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in August, right at the consensus. July reading was also 0.3%. Chart 1. U.S. Consumer Price Index Consumer price index fell less food & energy came out unchanged. The consensus was at 0.1%, July reading was at 0.1%. Chart 2. U.S. Consumer Price Index Core (Less Food […]
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 103 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 93 Bcf. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
(For September 2010) Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index rose to -0.7. The consensus was at +3.8, prior reading at -7.7. Again bellow consensus and again pointing to contraction. Both Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index point to lower ISM manufacturing. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia FED, Empire State Manufacturing Surveys and Chicago PMI
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) Crude oil stocks fell 1.9 million barrels for the week ending September 10, 2010; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.7 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 0.2 million barrels; Other oils stocks were up 0.8 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.9 […]
(For August 2010) U.S. producer price index rose 0.4% in august, just 0.1% shy of 0.3% consensus. July reading was at 0.2%. On year level PPI is up 3.1%. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Index Food & energy taken out U.S. producer price index rose 0.1% in August. The consensus was also at 0.1%, prior reading at […]
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 450.000. The consensus was at 459.000, last week revised (up 2.000) reading was at 453.000. Initial claims and 4-week average have come down a bit in last couple weeks, but this level of jobless claims is consistent with negative non-farm […]
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in August. The consensus was at 0.2%, July revised (from +1.0) reading at 0.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production Capacity utilization rose to 74.7% in August vs. 74.6% in July (revised from 74.8%) and consensus of 75.0%. Chart 2. Capacity Utilization Same as with Empire State Manufacturing Survey earlier today, below […]
(For September 2010) Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September came out at 4.14 vs. 8.0 consensus and 7.1 prior reading. Again bellow consensus; again deteriorating. It will be hard to produce another miraculous ISM Manufacturing reading. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia FED, Empire State Manufacturing Surveys and Chicago PMI
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 8.9% , prior reading was a decrease of 1.5.%. Refinance index fell 10.8%; Purchase index fell 0.4%. No change in purchase applications; Refinancing is heading lower as number of homeowners who have not refinanced is being exhausted. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index climbed 1.7% in July following a 1.9% drop in June. Press release. “The August data is obviously discouraging after the cautious optimism created from July’s report,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist. “There is not much to feel good about with the August data in terms of the unemployment picture, but there […]
No surprise they intervened, only the scale of the exchange rate move is somewhat surprising to me. Nice candle. Yen strengthening was the result of China increasing its portion of foreign currency reserves held in Japanese Yen, probably attempting to soften U.S. anger over China exchange rate policy by causing problems elsewhere. The world of competitive debasement continues, probably with increased intensity; they will […]
Another brilliant commentary by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds. Impulse Response by John P. Hussman of Hussman funds (www.hussmanfunds.com). …So what is the most likely outcome of this situation? In my view, the next three months represent the most serious window for the U.S. economy and labor market. The typical 23-26 week lag between […]