Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 304,679 carloads, up 7.9% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 4.2% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +9.8% (due to Labor day). Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
Baltic dry index fell 8.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.3%; Panamax Index fell 7.1%; Supramax Index fell 6.6%; Handysize Index was down 1.5%. Baltic dry index is off 18.6% from recent peek. Holiday season in China (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to October […]
(For August 2010) Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August was reported at -0.53 vs. July revised reading of -0.11. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.42. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 2.2%. Dead in the water. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Moody’s just downgraded Anglo Irish senior unsecured debt by three notches (A3/Prime-1 to Baa3/Prime-3) and subordinated debt by six notches (Ba1 to Caa1). Irish spreads unchanged at Fridays record highs. Downgrade (as usual) when the market price has already ran its course.
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Paychex (PAYX), Thor Industries (THO), Zale (ZLC), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Tuesday: Walgreen (WAG), Standard Microsystems (SMSC) Wednesday: SYNNEX (SNX), Worthington Industries (WOR), Actuant (ATU), Family Dollar Stores (FDO), American Greetings (AM), Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) Thursday: AZZ (AZZ), Christopher & Banks Corporation (CBK), McCormick & Co. […]
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 17, 2010 was reported down 8.7%. Prior reading was at -9.3% (revised -0.1% lower). This is it for this leg down. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For August) U.S. new home sales were unchanged in August at 288.000 SAAR, the consensus was at 295.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised upward 12.000) was also at 288.000 SAAR. And markets move higher on this too… Chart 1. U.S. New Home Sales SAAR
(For August 2010) Durable good orders fell -1.3% in August vs. -1.0% consensus and +0.7% decrease in July (revised upwards from +0.3%). Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Transportation taken out the figure was a increase of 2.0% vs. -2.8% fall in July (revised upwards from -3.8%). The consensus was at +1.0%. Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders […]
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 73 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 80 Bcf. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
(For August 2010) If you were (same as I) wondering why market moved up it was because of this. Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% in August. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior revised reading was at 0.1%. On year level LEI is up 6.9% vs. 7.2% in July. Digging little deeper we can […]
(For August 2010) Sales of existing homes in U.S. rose 7.6% to 4.13 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 4.1 million. Chart 1. U.S. Existing Home Sales Total housing inventory is unchanged from July at 4.0 million units. Months supply fell from 12.5 to 11.6 months. Chart 2. U.S. Existing Home Sales Inventory & U.S. Existing […]
For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 1.0 million barrels for the week ending September 17, 2010; Gasoline stocks increased 1.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks were up 0.3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks remained unchanged; Other oils stocks were up 0.7 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.9 million […]
(For The Week Ending September 18, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 465.000. The consensus was at 450.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 453.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For July 2010) FHFA House Price Index fell 0.5% in July vs. fall of 0.3%in June. On year level the index is down 3.3%. House prices could return to negative trend. Chart 1. FHFA House Price Index