Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 60.4. The consensus was at 55.5, prior reading at 56.7. First manufacturing survey above consensus and pointing to expansion. Richmond FED Manufacturing, Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index all point to lower ISM manufacturing while Chicago pints to higher ISM […]
U.S. GDP Q2 growth was revised from 1.6% to 1.7%. The consensus was at 1.6%, Q1 reading was at 2.7%. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent Change
FT Alpaville was first to report this: An anonymous tip-off regarding Spanish GDP… The big question then, according to the author(s), is the ‘real’ level of Spain’s GDP. Using a deviation of 24 per cent in market services, 5 per cent in manufacturing and 6 per cent in construction, the author comes up with a […]
(For The Week Ending September 24, 2010) Belisarius had a real bad time compiling this report today, as he is struggling to find purpose in hard work on this piece of analysis and apparent zero usefulness in trading. In short refinery utilization collapsed so we had a small gasoline draw, and the price of crude oil skyrocketed on that… Chart 1. […]
(For The Week Ending September 25, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 453.000. The consensus was at 460.000, last week revised (up 9.000) reading was at 469.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Moody’s lowered Spain to Aa1 from Aaa with a stable outlook. This was widely expected, Spain bond spreads narrowed. Bloomberg story: Spain’s Credit Rating Cut One Level to Aa1 by Moody’s. Ireland bank rescue price tag was estimated at USD 68 billion or 32% of Ireland’s GDP. Bloomberg story: Ireland Faces $68 Billion Bank Rescue to Prop Up Allied, Anglo. […]
(For The Week Ending September 24, 2010) MBA mortgage applications fell 0.8% , prior reading was a decrease of 1.4.%. Refinance index fell 1.6%; Purchase index rose 2.4%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
(For August 2010) The American Trucking Associations seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 2.7% in August. The largest month-to-month decrease since March 2009. From the Press Release: ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that August’s data highlights that the economy, while still growing, is slowing. “We fully anticipate sluggish economic growth for the remainder […]
Irish spreads again a bit higher today. Irish government will announce tomorrow the details of Anglo Irish burial rescue. So far the bank has received EUR 23 billion of state help, tomorrow will be added additional EUR 10-15 billion. Incidental tomorrow marks two years of Irish government guaranteeing Anglo Irish debt and the guarantee is not (jet) extended. So, there is a possibility that some EUR 5.7 billion […]
(For September 2010) HSBC/Markit China PMI rose from 49.4 to 52.9. It appears that China industrial production figures for September will improve a bit. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI; HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI; China Industrial Production Growth
(For September 2010) Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey came out today at -2. The consensus was at 6.0, prior reading at 6. Another manufacturing survey bellow consensus and again pointing to contraction. Richmond FED Manufacturing, Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index all point to lower ISM manufacturing. Richmond FED Manufacturing, Dallas Fed Manufacturing […]
(For September 2010) Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 48.5 vs. 52.1 consensus and 53.5 reading for August. Big miss; markets as usual not valuing negative news and readings. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For July 2010) Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.03%; Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite also fell 0.3%. On a year level 10 city index is up 4.0%; 20 city index is up 3.1% This is three month rolling average for July. Time lag is huge. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. […]
Irish 10 year government bond yield spread versus same maturity German moved to new record high today. European markets resemble roller coaster ride today, having fallen post opening and paring losses after some verbal intervention from ECB officials. Irish story is starting to more and more look like Greece earlier. Chart 1. Ireland vs. Germany […]
(For September 2010) Dallas FED Manufacturing Activity was reported at -17.7. The consensus was at -6.0, prior reading at -13.5. Again bellow consensus and again pointing to contraction. Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index all point to lower ISM manufacturing. Dallas Fed Manufacturing and Empire State Manufacturing both deteriorated in […]