Global Macro Perspectives
Crude oil stocks fell 3.0 million barrels for week ending August 6; Gasoline stocks rose 0.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased 3.5 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 2.3 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 2.4 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.1 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization fell […]
U.S. trade balance for June was reported at $-49.9 billion vs. consensus of $-42.5 billion and May reading of $-42.3 billion. Q2 GDP growth will be revised sharply downwards. Chart 1. U.S. Trade Balance
MBA mortgage applications rose 0.3% for week ending August 6, prior reading was an increase of 1.5.%. Both refinance index and purchase index rose 0.6%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
China retail sales rose 17.9% in July vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.3% growth in June. Everything slowing down… Chart 1. China Retail Sales Growth
Industrial production growth in China fell to 13.4% in July from 13.7% in June. The consensus was also at 13.4%. Slowing down… Chart 1. China Industrial Production
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.6% YoY in July vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.5% growth in June. Chinese government reigning in on monetary expansion. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates China new loans rose CNY 632.8 billion vs. CNY 603.4 billion in June and CNY 603.4 billion Chart 2. China New Loans China fixed asset investments […]
China Consumer Price Index was up 3.3% in July, right at the consensus. June reading was at 2.9%. China Producer Price Index was up 4.8% in July vs. 6.0% consensus and 6.4% June reading. All of the consumer price increase came from food. PPI eased a bit on weaker dollar and lower commodity prices. Consumer inflation […]
And we have QE 1.1. Lite. Direct monetization. Basic money printing. I’m surprised FED reacted so fast. To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities […]
U.S. Non-Farm Productivity fell 0.9% in second quarter. The consensus was at 0.0%, first quarter reading at 2.8%. U.S. Labor Costs rose 0.2% in second quarter vs. 1.5% consensus and -1.3% reading in first quarter. This is highly deflationary. Chart 1. U.S. Non-Farm Productivity Chart 2. Unit Labor Costs
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July was reported at 88.1 vs. consensus of 88.0 and prior reading of 89.0. Readings at this level are consistent with weak recovery/recession. Chart 1. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
U.S. railroads originated 300,292 carloads for the week ending July 30, up 9.4% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 6.4% compared with 5-year average. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
China trade balance was reported at USD 28.7 billion vs. USD 20.0 billion in June. Export and import growth were running at 38.1 and 22.7 percent. The imports are slowing down, I would say that will mean lower exports further down the road. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 84.5 billion vs. USD 108.0 billion for […]
Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China are up 10.3% YoY in July compared with of 11.4% YoY rise in June. It’s slowing down…down 0.1% MoM. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price YoY
We have a slow day today with no economic data in the U.S. Europe is trading on average up 1.5%, U.S. futures are up 0.3%, so it looks U.S. markets are not going to follow European lead. Sell side macro economists are following Goldman’s (brilliant) Jan Hatzius lead and reducing GDP growth both for second half of 2010 and […]
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 8 for the week ending August 6, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 11 rigs in the same time frame. On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 52 rigs in July. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly […]