Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 6.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 2.8%. We have crude oil production returning to pre-crisis levels (2 million barrels per day shy), but the rates are really pathetic. They have built too many ships, same will happen with dry bulk. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Continuing with the continuing of the Hindenburg Omen Story: The Hindenburg Omen Confirmed. It got confirmed for second time on Friday. Zero Hedge post: Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week. Longs may be forgiven if they are sweating their long positions over the weekend: not only did […]
(Week Ending August 13, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 13 was reported down 10.0%. Prior reading was revised from -9.8% to -10.2%. Contrary to Conference Board LEI, ECRI Weakly Leading Index is pointing to a recession. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Continuing with Hindenburg Omen story. Apparently it got confirmed yesterday. Zero Hedge post: Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1. Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 […]
Working gas in storage rose 27 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 31 Bcf. Additions to storage are slowing down and the total storage is getting more and more closer to the pre-crisis averages. Very, very interesting… Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. […]
Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index fell 4.0% in June and it is now running at -9.1% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.1% in July. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior revised reading was at -0.3%. LEI contrary to ECRI Leading Index is pointing to minimal GDP growth. Chart 1. Conference Board Leading Economic Index
Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index fell to -7.7. The consensus was at +7.0, prior reading at +5.1. Chart 1. Philadelphia Fed Survey – General Business Conditions Index
Crude oil stocks fell 0.8 million barrels for week ending August 13; Gasoline stocks remained unchanged; Distillate stocks increased 1.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 2.4 million barrels; Other oils stocks were up 2.3 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 5.3 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization rose 1.9% […]
Initial jobless claims were reported at 500.000. The consensus was at 478.000, last week revised reading was at 488.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
MBA mortgage applications rose 13.0% for week ending August 13, prior reading was an increase of 0.6.%. Refinance index rose 17.1%; Purchase index fell 3.4% and it is just 6 points shy of all time low. Lower rates spurred refinancing while purchasing activity stayed at recent depressed levels. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
U.S. industrial production rose 1.0% in July. The consensus was at 0.5%, June revised reading at -0.1%. Capacity utilization rose to 74.8% in July vs. 74.1% in June and consensus of 74.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
U.S. producer price index rose 0.2% in July, right at the consensus. June reading was at -0.5%. Food & energy taken out U.S. producer price index rose 0.3% in July. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior reading at 0.1%. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Indexes
U.S. housing starts in July rose 1.7% to 546.000 vs. revised (12.000 lower) 537.000 June reading. The consensus was at 560.000. Building permits in the same period rose 3.1% to 565.000. Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Chart 2. U.S. Building Permits
HMI for July came out at 13 vs. 14 in July. Consensus was at 15. All components edged lower except traffic of perspective buyers which remained unchanged. Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index