Global Macro Perspectives
Integral version. In general, something for everybody. Looks like it puzzled the markets, but I think the focus tomorrow will be on FOMC unwillingness (for the time being) to “resume large-scale asset purchases”. My take: Economic outlook. Little bit too positive in my view. In the economic forecast prepared for the AugustFOMC meeting, the staff lowered its projection for theincrease […]
(For August 2010) Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 53.5 vs. 50.7 consensus and 51.0 reading for July. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For August 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 56.7 vs. 57.0 consensus and 62.3 July reading. Chart 1.
(For June 2010) Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.3%; Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite also rose 0.3%. This is three month rolling average for June. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
Excellent opinion piece in todays Financial Times by Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart. Carmen Reinhart co-authored with Kenneth S. Rogoff now famous study on public and foreign debt: Growth in a Time of Debt. Finacial Times link (subscription required): Beware those who think the worst is past. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, painted a […]
U.S. personal income rose 0.2% in July vs. 0.3% consensus and revised 0.0% June reading. On YoY level the personal income is up 3.0%. U.S. consumer spending also rose 0.4% in July vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.o% prior reading. On YoY level the consumer spending is up 3.4%. U.S. personal savings as a percentage of […]
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) U.S. railroads originated 296,634 carloads, up 7.3% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 8.1% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +0.2%. Chart 1. Association of American Railroads U.S. Freight Carloads Total
(For The Week Ending August 27, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 17; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 12. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: SWS Group (SWS), Jos. A Bank Clothiers (JOSB), Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI), Volt Information Sciences (VOL) Tuesday: ABM Industries (ABM), Applied Signal Technology (APSG) Wednesday: Brown-Forman (BF-B), Greif (GEF), Joy Global (JOYG), Oxford Industries (OXM), Martek Biosciences (MATK), Collective Brands (PSS), HJ Heinz Co. (HNZ), SAIC (SAI), Genesco Inc. […]
Baltic dry index fell 1.6% last week; Capesize Index fell 3.6%; Panamax Index fell also 3.6%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 1.6% and 1.0% respectively. I added 3 new charts below. Iron ore and steel inventory (5 cities only, but I think it should work as a proxy) and iron ore price. The fundamentals are […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 5.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.4%. Supply is overwhelming demand, rates are approximately at ship operating costs, I don’t think further comment is needed. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 20 was reported down 9.9%. Prior reading was revised (again) from -10.0% to -10.1%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
I was unable to post this on Friday…so I’m posting it now, just for the record… U.S. GDP Q2 growth was revised from 2.4% to 1.6%. The consensus was at 1.3%, Q1 reading was at 2.7%. Revision not as big as expected, but the slowdown is materializing in official data. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent […]
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 40 Bcf from previous week. The price has fallen a lot, given macro-economic data we could see more downside, but I will follow this carefully as I thing great opportunity is developing here. The storage before winter will not be so high as last […]
(For The Week Ending August 20, 2010) Initial jobless claims were reported at 473.000. The consensus was at 495.000, last week revised reading was at 504.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims