Global Macro Perspectives
A reading of -10.% was historically 100% correct predictor of a recession. At todays level the track record is, if my memory serves right, 7 recession of 8 times reading this low. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Nonfarm payrolls fell 125.000 in June. The consensus was at -125.000, revised reading for May was an increase of 433.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.5% vs prior reading of 9.7% and consensus of 9.8%. Nothing special in the report, meaningful new hiring nowhere to be found. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
Working gas in storage rose 60 Bcf from previous week. Supply weakening. This could get very interesting soon. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
In May, U.S. construction spending fell 0.2% MoM vs. -0.5% consensus and 2.7% rise in April. On a year level we are at -8.0%. Economic recovery without construction recovering is not the real sustainable recovery. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending
U.S. total motor vehicle sales for June fell 0.56 million units to 11.08 million SAAR. Chart 1. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales
I’ll stick with my guess that todays non-farm payrolls will disappoint. Charts 1. Monster Employment Index
Job losses kind of flat in the last three months. Chart 1. Challenger Job-Cut Report