Global Macro Perspectives
Number of oil drilling rigs rose for 16 rigs for the week ending June 11, 2010; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 7 rigs in the same time frame. On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 50 rigs in May. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: La-Z-Boy (LZB), Korn/Ferry International (KFY) Tuesday: CLARCOR (CLC), Best Buy (BBY), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), Stanley (SXE) Wednesday: FedEx (FDX) Thursday: Winnebago Industries (WGO), John Wiley & Sons (JW-A), The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM), Actuant Corporation (ATU), The Kroger (KR), Smithfield Foods (SFD) Friday: – Important U.S. economic […]
Baltic dry index fell 14.5% last week; The hardest hit were Capesizes with 16.3% loss and Panamaxes with 13.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 12.1% and 6.5%. Platou Markets: Chinese iron ore imports fell to 51.9 mt in May from 55.3 mt in April. After being up 11.7% for the first four months of the year, […]
Did not have time to post this on Friday. Consumer sentiment for June came out at 75.5 vs. 74.0 consensus and 73.6 May reading. Markets disregarded bad retail sales report and moved higher on consumer confidence. Highest reading since January 2008. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.6%. U.S. gulf / Europe arbitrage showing some signs of life; but overall the demand for wet transport is weak. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Retail sales fell 1.2% in May . The consensus was at 0.2%, April reading was a gain of 0.4%. Autos taken out, the figure was -1.1%; the consensus was at 0.1%; prior reading at 0.4%. Big and clear disappointment and a confirmation of a major economic slowdown coming in the second half of the year. Chart 1. […]
Intriguing article by Financial Times: Property tax offers path to Chinese reforms. To sum up. Chinese government is thinking on introducing a property tax to rein on real-estate speculation. China will start to introduce some form of annual tax on residential property in the coming months. If that does happen – and it is still […]
China fixed asset investments rose 25.9% in May; the consensus was at 25.7%, April reading was 26.1%. Real-estate accounted for 46.2% of fixed asset investments. Scary. Chart 1. China Fixed Assets Investment
All of China monetary aggregates rose in May: M0 was up 15.3%; M1 was up 29.9%; M2 was up 21.0%. New loan issuance was also strong (up 21.5% YoY). If they don’t tighten fast, they will miss the opportunity…and the bubble bursts in an ugly way. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates Chart 2. China New Loans
Industrial production growth in China fell to 16.5% in May from 17.8% in April. The consensus was at 17.0%. Inventory adjustment has ran its course; export demand could be weaker in the second half of the year; both setting path to moderation in industrial production. Chart 1. China Industrial Production
CPI was up 3.1% vs. 3.0% consensus and 2.8% reading in April. PPI was up 7.1% vs. 6.8% consensus and same April reading. The prices are rising despite lower crude oil and commodity prices. The mail driver was rise in food prices. PPI / CPI gap widening putting pressure on corporate margins. Chart 1. Producer & Consumer Price […]
Working gas in storage rose 99 Bcf from previous week. The natural gas price got a little ahead of itself on drilling ban. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
U.S. trade balance for April was reported at $-40.3 billion vs. consensus of $-41 billion and a March reading of $-40.4 billion. Chart 1. U.S. Trade Balance
Initial jobless claims were reported at 456.000. The consensus was at 448.000, last week revised reading was at 459.000. It just doesn’t go down… Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
China trade balance was reported at USD 19.5 billion vs. USD 8.2 billion consensus and USD 1.7 billion in April. Export and import growth was running at 48.5 and 48.3 percent; Exports beat the consensus by 15% margin. Good numbers, but I suspect that going further into the year we will deterioration in trade balance as global […]