Global Macro Perspectives
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: CKE Restaurants (CKR), Sonic (SONC), Herman Miller (MLHR), Palm (PALM) Tuesday: Walgreen (WAG), Red Hat (RHT), HB Fuller (FUL), Gerber Scientific (GRB), Stanley (SXE), Jefferies Group (JEF), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Commercial Metals Company (CMC), Carnival (CCL), Apogee Enterprises (APOG), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Progress Software (PRGS) Wednesday: Nike (NKE), CarMax […]
Baltic dry index fell 18.1% last week; The hardest hit, again, were Capesizes with 26.7% loss. Panamaxes lost 11.3% ; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 7.4% and 6.5%. China and Taiwan were on holiday from Monday to Wednesday, seasonal weakness and new-buildings hitting the markets all contributed to the dry freight rates falling. Will we have more than a seasonal weakness remains to […]
Everybody looking only on the China central bank announcement on yuan flexibility. My take, it will prove to be a fake and even contrarian indicator. Media all over the story. Exchange rate didn’t move, non-deliverable futures did, one year pricing a big 2.8%. Yeah, a 2.8% move makes a difference. Bloomberg story on the aspects of the announcement: China’s Hu […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 5.9%. Steady supply of vessel keeps rates low, and the market action is slow. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Working gas in storage rose 87 Bcf from previous week. Supply still strong. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
Initial jobless claims were reported at 472.000. The consensus was at 450.000, last week revised reading was at 456.000. If we combine this with recent bleak readings for leading unemployment indicators, it looks real bad. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
U.S. consumer price index fell 0.2 percent in May, right at the consensus. April reading was at -0.1%. Consumer price index fell less food & energy came out at consensus of 0.1%. Prior reading was no change for April. Again, no inflation in sight. Chart 1. Consumer Price Index
Crude oil stocks rose 1.7 million barrels for week ending June 11; Gasoline stocks fell 0.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased 1.8 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 2.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 4.4 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization fell from 89.1% to 87.9%. Implied demand fell […]
U.S. industrial production rose 1.2% in May. The consensus was at 0.9%, April reading at 0.8%. Capacity utilization rose from 73.7% in April to 74.7%; the consensus was at 74.5%. Main contributors to growth were automakers and utilities. Chart 1. U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
U.S. producer price index fell 0.3% in May vs. -0.5% consensus and 0.1% fall in April. Food & energy taken out U.S. producer price index rose 0.2% in May. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior reading at 0.2%. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Indexes
U.S. housing starts were reported at 593.000 vs. revised 659.00 April reading. The consensus was at 648.000. Building permits in the same period fell 5.9% to 574.000. Bad report. Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Chart 2. U.S. Building Permits
MBA mortgage applications rose 17.7% for week ending June 11 on back of a 21.2% refinancing surge, the prior reading was a decrease of 12.2%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
HMI came out at 17 vs. 22 in May. It is expected result of first home-buyer tax credit expiration. Nevertheless the U.S. housing is in a downward slope threatening the financial sector. All index components were down. Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Todays Financial Times front page: Spanish banks break ECB loan record. Spanish banks borrowed €85.6bn ($105.7bn) from the ECB last month. This was double the amount lent to them before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and 16.5 per cent of net eurozone loans offered by the central bank. Financial Times article: Turmoil in Spain […]
Another leading indicator falling. ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth for June came out at 28.7 vs. 42 consensus and 45.8 reading for May. Chart 1. ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth