Global Macro Perspectives
As usual all the data from China cones at the same time. So, let’s start. In short: China trade balance for April was marginally positive, but in my opinion the China ability to run large trade surplussed is lost and will not return in short term. Implications are diverse, maybe most important the quantity of […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT), Priceline.com (PCLN), Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP), Legg Mason (LM), Dean Foods (DF), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), Quicksilver Resources (KWK), NRG Energy (NRG), Tyson Foods (TSN), Fluor (FLR), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Healthcare Realty Trust (HR), Warnaco Group (WRC), Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Telephone […]
Baltic dry index rose 7.6% last week, again on the back of 10.5% Capesize Index gain. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize Index also recorded gains, but underperformed the broader index. Strong iron ore demand from China is fueling the gains. If financial turmoil continues, the gains will be hard to hold on. Chart 1. Baltic Dry […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 1.3%. No mayor freight rate moves despite financial turmoil. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Working gas in storage rose 83 Bcf from previous week. The price is not reacting, so maybe we have a short-term bottom. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average Chart 3. Natural Gas Futures Curve
After frustrating American and Asian sessions, looks like the markets have calmed down. After opening sharply lower European equities are trading at -0.6%. What to say on the U.S. action yesterday? Maybe only that the technology has evolved since Black Monday in 1987 and the trading programs were shut down (changed) very fast enabling the […]
Bloomberg story: NYSE Euronext Says There Were ’A Number of Erroneous Trades’
Ugly looking candle today. Looks the reason is EUR/JPY carry trade unwind, probably as a result of European debt problems. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. Euro vs. Japanese Yen
Initial jobless claims were reported at 444.000. The consensus was at 445.000, last week reading was at 448.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Crude oil stocks rose 2.8 million barrels for week ending April 30; Gasoline stocks increased 1.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 0.6 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks increased 1.8 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 1.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 9.8 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization rose […]
ADP Employment rose 32,000 in April vs. revised rise of 19,000 March. Challenger Job-Cut Report announced layoffs fell from 67,611 in March to 38,326 in April. We will have positive Nonfarm payrolls on Friday, the question is will the actual number reach consensus of +200,000. Chart 1. ADP Employment Chart 2. Challenger Job-Cut Report
MBA mortgage applications rose 4.0% for week ending 30 April, the week before reading was at -2.9%. The first home-buyer tax credit program is approaching its end… Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Equities With my 1,200 S&P 500 target reached I’ve moved to a kind of a ambiguous stance to the markets. Now I believe the equity markets are bound for a 10%+ down move at least. My mid-term view remains unchanged – this is just a bear market rally; U.S. and E.U. economies will experience same […]
Pending home sales index rose 5.3% in March. Again first home-buyer tax credit effect… Chart 1. Pending Home Sales Index
U.S. total motor vehicle sales fell 0.56 million vehicles in April. Chart 1. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales