Global Macro Perspectives
And the earnings season kicks off… Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Alcoa (AA), PacWest Bancorp (PACW), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Polycom (PLCM), Heartland Express (HTLD) Tuesday: Intel Corporation (INTC), Westamerica Bancorp (WABC), Linear Technology (LLTC), Fastenal (FAST), Healthcare Services Group (HCSG), CSX (CSX) Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), ADTRAN (ADTN), W.W. Grainger […]
Baltic dry index fell 2.6% last week. Panamax and Supramax Index ended in positive territory while Capesize and Handysize Index ended in negative territory. Chinese steel mills are quite unhappy with the new iron ore price setting mechanism and especially iron ore price. Their efforts are to substitute Brazilian and Australian iron ore with Indian […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.5% last week while Baltic Clean Tanker Index decreased 2.4%. Broker reports suggest increased number of cargoes was being loaded and increased number of inquiries. Despite that the rates are at historically low levels and the reported (alleged) increase in activity has not made any difference. The repercussions on crude […]
Working gas in storage rose 31 Bcf from previous week. Price rebounded on oversold conditions/short squeeze and again returned to downward path. Marginal costs of natural gas production is approximately 4 USD/MMBtu on average, so I would look this price as an equilibrium price and trade accordingly. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working […]
Initial jobless claims came out at 460.000. The consensus was at 435.000. The week before figure was revised higher to 442.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Outstanding consumer credit fell annualized 5.6% in February following a annualized 2.4% increase in January. January increase in consumer credit ended a 15 month long negative streak, February reading marked a return to falling consumer credit trend. Chart 1. Consumer Credit
Crude oil stocks rose 2.0 million barrels for week ending 2 April; Gasoline stocks decreased for 2.5 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.0 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks increased 2.4 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 0.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 7.2 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization […]
Rates for 30-year loans have risen 27 basins points (due to end of FED MBS buying program). As a result MBA Refinance Index fell 16.9%. Chart 1. MBA Composite; Purchase And Refinancing Index
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March rose to 55.4, the consensus was at 54, prior reading at 53. Chart 1. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Pending home sales index rose 8.2% in February. This is the single positive data point on U.S. housing in couple of months. Chart 1. Pending Home Sales Index
Total of 21 new drilling were added to already operating ones: 13 additional crude oil rigs and 8 additional natural gas rigs. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: AZZ (AZZ), Matrix Service (MTRX), LoJack (LOJN), Volt Information Sciences (VOL), Rehabcare Group (RHB) Tuesday: – Wednesday: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Apogee Enterprises (APOG), Family Dollar Stores (FDO), WD-40 Company (WDFC), Ruby Tuesday (RT), MSC Industrial Direct (MSM), Pep Boys – Manny, Moe & Jack (PBY), Monsanto (MON), […]
Baltic dry index fell 3.5% in the last week. Capesize Index outperformed and ended in positive territory while Panamax, Supramax and Handysize Index all underperformed and ended in negative territory. The increasing number of longer term time charters negotiated in recent weeks could be a sign what the vessel owners expect from the rates. As […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 9.5% last week while Baltic Clean Tanker Index decreased 2.5%. Not much happening here, weak demand is a constraint that catches up with the markets every time the rates increase a bit. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
Nonfarm payrolls increased 162.000 in March. The consensus was at 200.000, revised reading for March was -14.000. The unemployment rate remained at 9.7%. Below consensus reading, despite census hiring. Weather impact was 100.000, so “core” +60.000 is not much of an improvement. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate