Global Macro Perspectives
China exports were up 45.7% in February vs. 38.3% consensus and 21% in January. Imports rose 44.7% vs. 38% consensus and 85.5% in January. Trade surplus shrank to $7.6 billion vs. $14.2 billion in January. The consensus was at $7.2 billion. The trade surplus is shrinking, less imports now could mean less exports in the […]
The dream of every gold bull got shattered today by Yi Gang, head of the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): It is, in fact, impossible for gold to become a major investment channel for China’s foreign exchange reserves. I have 1,000 tonnes now, and even if I doubled that holding, according to current […]
The markets have arrived to the crucial point for the short term direction. If the markets manage to close above today’s close at least for three consecutive sessions we could be poised for a breakout to the above. If the today’s levels don’t hold up the route to S&P 500 1000 mark is open. Chart […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Ebix (EBIX), Thor Industries (THO), H&R Block (HRB), Casey’s General Stores (CASY) Tuesday: Analogic Corporation (ALOG), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Superior Well Services (SWSI), Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP), Tootsie Roll Industries (TR), Collective Brands (PSS), AeroVironment (AVAV), Boston Beer Co. (SAM), Kroger (KR), J. Crew Group (JCG), Korn/Ferry International (KFY), […]
Baltic dry index rose 18.4% in the last week. Rocket propelled lift-off. Capesize and Panamax Index outperformed the BDI, Supramax and Handysize Index underperformed. The Chinese buyers returned to the iron ore in a big way. Mayor factor here are iron ore price increase agreed in the annual price talks, the rumors range from 30% […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.1% last week while Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.2%. Fixing activity stronger than the week before, but the indexes did not change substantially. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
As I expected non-farm payrolls came out yesterday at -36.000 for February vs. -50.000 consensus and a revised -26.000 figure for January. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.7% vs. 9.8% consensus. We could say that the job losses for U.S. economy are approaching its end. Chart 1. Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payrolls Change
Outstanding consumer credit rose annualized 2.4% in January following a annualized 2.2% decline in December. January increase in consumer credit ended a 15 month long negative streak. Table 1. Consumer Credit
Apparently it is all about the weather. From the Press release: Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said weather is likely to impact housing data. “January pending sales, though still higher than one year ago, remain much lower than expected given that a large number of potential buyers are eligible for the expanded home buyer tax […]
Initial jobless claims fell 27.000 to 469.000. The consensus was at 475.000. Chart 1. Initial Jobless Claims
Working gas in storage fell 116 Bcf from the previous week. It is almost certain now that the stockpiles are not depleted enough to balance the market this year. Apparently we will have another difficult year for natural gas price. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year […]
ADP Employment fell 20,000 in February vs. decline of a 22,000 in January. Challenger Job-Cut Report announced layoffs fell from 71,482 in January to 42,090 in February. If we rely on these reports as a indication of nonfarm payrolls we could be heading for a better than (50,000) consensus reading on Friday. Chart 1. ADP […]
Crude oil stocks rose 4.0 million barrels for week ending 26 February; Gasoline stocks increased for 0.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.8 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks decreased 0.5 million barrels; Other oils fell 2.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 0.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 81.2% to 81.9%. Crude […]
Greece government introduced yesterday a new austerity package and a tax increases. The value of the package is 4.8 billion of EUR. Half is aimed at spending cuts and half on tax increases. The tax increases will only ad to the dead spiral decreasing economic activity, and then again decreasing tax revenues… But that is […]
Looks like both are topping out, the official in an ugly way. We will see whether the official one will again lead the unofficial one. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI / HSBC China Manufacturing PMI