Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index rose 5.6% in the last week. Capesize Index outperformed the BDI, Panamax Index was in line, while Supramax and Handysize Index underperformed. The market action seems like a result of market participants fixing Capesize vessels in anticipation of China return to the markets after the this week New Year celebration and on […]
I was on the road yesterday, so the usual service suffered… The most important piece of news yesterday was FED’s decision to increase the discount rate by 0.25%, to 0.75%. The measure has a marginal real impact on the banking sector, but it could have large psychological impact. The political and media orchestrated “recovery” pressures […]
Crude oil stocks rose 3.1 million barrels for week ending 12 February; Gasoline stocks increased for 1.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 2.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks decreased 2.9 million barrels; Other oils were flat; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 2.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 79.1% to 79.8%. Crude oil and […]
Working gas in storage fell 190 Bcf from the previous week. Cold weather is helping the stockpiles draw, but we are still above both last year and 5 year average levels. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
The markets move exclusively on currency moves. The lack of market receptiveness of economic data shows that we are in some sort of irrational mode again. Data yesterday was mixed but with small deviations from the expected values. Empire state manufacturing survey general business conditions index was a positive surprise of the day and was reported […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: US: Presidents’ Day Tuesday: Nabors Industries (NBR), FMC Technologies (FTI), Genuine Parts Company (GPC), Kraft Foods (KFT), Qwest Communications International (Q), Waste Management (WM), Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) Wednesday: NetApp (NTAP), Applied Materials (AMAT), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Questar (STR), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), XTO […]
Baltic dry index fell 5.3% in the last week. Panamaxes outperformed the BDI, while Capesizes underperformed. For the time being dry freight weakness is due the slowdown of Chinese imports because of Chinese New Year and accompanying. This is also a reason for Capesize underperformance because this type of ships usually haul iron ore and […]
Crude oil stocks rose 2.4 million barrels for week ending 5 February; Gasoline stocks increased for 2.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.4 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks decreased 1.3 million barrels; Other oils were down 1 million barrel; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks rose 1.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from the post Lehman […]
Working gas in storage fell 191 Bcf from the previous week. Cold weather is helping the price, but I’m still indecisive if the winter draw will be strong enough to clear the stockpiles for a summer filling. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
The initial jobless claims positively surprised declining 40.000 from the prior week and reaching 440.000. The consensus was at 467.000. It looks that combined with census hiring the positive cold continue. The markets yesterday closed positively yesterday on news that E.U. will back up Greece. The statement was obviously a product of lack of consensus. […]
The equity indexes moved higher on the statement by EU officials and European politicians on Greece. In short the statement offers no concrete solution; it orders Greece to cut it’s deficit; to solve the “statistical measurement problems”, even calls the IMF… A mess and we move higher on that…
The quantity of news articles and blog post on Greece reached greatest number ever. Too much of attention to a issue that is important to the markets only if we look at it as a warning signal. The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly rose to $40.2 billion vs. $35.7 billion consensus and $36.4 billion November. Well, […]
Marvin King: It was at this press conference one year ago that I explained the asset purchase programme to you. That was at a time of sharply falling output and collapsing confidence. Since then, the position has improved considerably. Output has stabilised and confidence has recovered. The additional money created by the asset programme will […]
One of the most important piece of data being reported this week is Chinese money supply. When giving a little thought to the meter, it gives a negative impulse to the markets turned both ways. If the growth continues we have asset bubbles forming and inflation threat; If growth slows down we have a threat […]
Markets still focus on Europe and in particular Greece. There are some rumors today that Unicredit and Deutsche bank have ceased to accept Greek government bonds as a collateral; there are also some rumors that the capital flight from Greece is reaching alarming levels. It looks the Greece story is approaching its climax and we […]