Global Macro Perspectives
Working gas in storage fell 245 Bcf from the previous week. In the strange twist of events we are coming from storage being 100% full to possibly empty storage at the end of the winter.From fundamental side a even more compelling long. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared […]
This is huge, if it is implemented. No propitiatory trading operations No hedge fund investments No private equity funds investments 11:34 A.M. EST THE PRESIDENT: Good morning, everybody. I just had a very productive meeting with two members of my Economic Recovery Advisory Board: Paul Volcker, who’s the former chair of the Federal Reserve Board; […]
The focus on China continues. China statistic bureau reported China economy grew 10.7%. Bloomberg story: China’s GDP Growth Accelerates to Fastest Since 2007. The market focused on what wasn’t told in the report. Apparently the press release was missing the references to keeping “moderately loose monetary policy” and a “proactive fiscal policy”. The intense to […]
All the fuss today on a news that China maybe has started to slow down the credit growth. WSJ story: Bank of China to Take Steps to Rein In Loans. We have so many alerts coming from various data points and the market reacts violently on this kind of news. Equity was down, bonds an […]
The TARP repayment has cost Citigroup and its shareholders $6.2 billion. It seems that shareholders can’t get enough of value decreasing and diluting efforts by the Citi management. Shares are trading +1.2%. The loan loss provisions were again reduced while credit delinquencies rose. Citigroup today reported a full year 2009 net loss of $1.6 billion, […]
Intel (INTC): Q4 EPS of $0.40 vs. consensus of $0.10. Revenue of $10.6B (+28%) vs. $10.2B. Gross margin of 65%. JPMorgan (JPM): Q4 EPS of $0.74 vs. consensus of $0.87. Revenue of $23.16B vs. $26.8B. Adds $1.9B to consumer loan loss reserves, resulting in firm wide credit reserves of $32.5B and loan loss coverage ratio […]
I was away from the computer and away from the markets, so let me recap most important developments. MBA purchase applications were up 0.8% vs. 3.6% the week before. Retail sales in December disappointed coming out at -0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus and 1.3% in November. Initial jobless claims edged up reaching 444.000 vs. 437.000 consensus […]
Many big names reporting next week. Potential fireworks. Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day All Markets Closed Tuesday: Citigroup (C), CSX (CSX), International Business Machines (IBM) Wednesday: Coach (COH), Northern Trust (NTRS), US Bancorp (USB), eBay (EBAY), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), The Bank of New York […]
Working gas in storage fell 266 Bcf from the previous week. The cold weather depletes stocks at a surprising rate. An interesting situation, potential long opportunity. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Crude oil stocks rose 3.3 million barrels for week ending 8 January; Gasoline stocks increased for 3.9 million barrels; Distillate stocks gained 1.4 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 3.5 million barrels; Other oils were down 3.2 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks increased 3.5 million barrels. Refinery utilization remained surprised to the upside […]
Alcoa earnings loss raised questions on strength of earnings reported in earnings season started this week. Will it evolve to something more then temporary weakness it depends primarily on reported earnings and U.S. dollar exchange rate. For me, the path is still not clear. On the economic data front we had trade balance reported today. […]
United States Department of Agriculture issued Crop Production 2009 Summary for January. Production of all major agricultural commodities is expected at record numbers. The report sparked a major sell-off. Chart 1. Dow Jones – UBS Corn Subindex Chart 2. Dow Jones – UBS Wheat Subindex Chart 3. Dow Jones – UBS Soybeans Subindex
Alcoa (AA) reported loss from continuing operations of $266 million, or $0.27 per share. The consensus was a profit of $0.08 per share. Net charges for restructuring, special items and discrete tax items of $275 million, or $0.28 per share. A large miss, but it’s popular these days to disregard reported EPS although Alcoa has […]
The trading in Asia and Europe today was dominated by China export data. Apparently China exports rose 17.7% y-o-y for December almost reaching pre-crisis levels. The consensus was at 5%. In the same time imports grew 55.9% y-o-y, vs. the consensus forecast of 32.5% . The trade surplus reached $18.4 billion in December, about 60% […]
Earnings season starts this week. Looks it will have the same flavor as last couple of earnings seasons. Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Bank Mutual (BKMU), Skyline (SKY), Alcoa (AA), Audiovox (VOXX), WD-40 (WDFC), Volt Information Sciences Inc. (VOL), Helen of Troy (HELE) Tuesday: The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (GAP), Supervalu (SVU), […]