Global Macro Perspectives
Good that I closed the UNG position, I have saved myself from a lot of profits. U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – 03 December 2009. Like with JPY the entry point was a absolute high/low, but I earned almost nothing. P….. It’s a part of my trading strategy not to loose money, but it’s hard to […]
Well, nothing particularity interesting in news today. I have place a new trade in the last minutes of Friday trading. I bought IYR ATM puts. IYR is iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF. It’s a pure sector leaders/laggards play. We are experiencing selectivity in the stock performance as a consequence of flight to quality. […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Blyth (BTH), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), Pep Boys – Manny, Moe & Jack (PBY), Integral Systems (ISYS), Volt Information Sciences (VOL), Financial Federal (FIF) Tuesday: Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL), SAIC (SAI), Kroger (KR), The Cooper Companies (COO), H&R Block (HRB), AeroVironment (AVAV), CKE Restaurants (CKR), Korn/Ferry International (KFY), Sanderson Farms […]
Well I must admit that I don’t have a clue what’s happening in the markets now. The markets opened positive on large positive surprise in non-farm payrolls and in mid of trading everything reversed. Three reasons come to my mind: first is a deeper look in unemployment numbers; the second one would be the new […]
Nonfarm Payrolls for November came out at -11.000 vs. -100.000 consensus and – 190.000 in September. A clear improvement and a positive surprise for the markets. Chart 1. Non-farm Payrolls Monthly and Yearly Change The unemployment edged lower to 10.0% from 10.2% in December. Consensus was at 10.2%. Chart 2. Civilian Unemployment Rate The equity […]
Natural gas in storage rose 2 billion cubic feet in the latest week. No draw I speculated about in the UNG post. Closed the UNG postition at small loss. Chart 1. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Bank of America announced that it will repay all bail out funds. Bloomberg link: Bank of America to Repay Bailout, Easing CEO Search. The stock is trading up 4% despite massive dilution. No comment. Initial jobless claims were reported at 457.000 vs. 466.000 and 485.000 consensus. Again falling steady. Bloomberg story: U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly […]
I eagerly started my strategy series and invested opposite the same day. So much on strategy and trading having common points. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) has hit new lows yesterday and I couldn’t resist taking a position. I bought ATM April Calls. Had to close FXY position (with a small profit) to […]
Crude oil stocks increased 2.1 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 1.2 million barrels; Other oils flat; Total crude oil and petroleum products ending stocks up 5.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization rate again below 80%: at 70.66%. Last weeks tick up in utilization caused gasoline stocks rising. Total crude oil […]
ADP unemployment for November just came out at -169.000 vs. -209.000 last month. Similar as with jobless claims, the job loses are coming down, but U.S. economy is still losing jobs. The story of the day in the U.S. yesterdays was GM CEO Fritz Henderson resignation. The resignation followed the Motor Vehicle Sales but apparently […]
I am starting a monthly strategy overview to have my strategy in one place and a to test accuracy of my views. Written revisions and accommodations would also contribute to my investment discipline. Equities I have been surprised by the market strength as the market rejected the Dubai turmoil as a correction catalyst. This has […]
Back to norm. Dubai World announced debt restructuring talks on (only) $26 billion debt, and the crowd has gone wild. WSJ story (with nice interactive extras): Dubai World in Talks on Debt Restructuring. The dollar is falling again, risky assets are rising and the saga continues. New addition to the situation is The Bank of […]