Global Macro Perspectives
Crude oil stocks were down 3.7 million barrels for week ending 11 December; Gasoline stocks rose 0.9 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell big 4 million barrels; Other oils were down 0.6 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks decreased 12.7 million barrels. This is one of the most […]
Asia closed mixed ( Nikkei up, Hang Seng down, Shanghai Composite down) Europe is trading positive 1% on average. Nothing special in the news today. Everybody will be waiting for the FOMC policy meeting decision later today and then analyze every word in the statement. I would put my money on “nothing changes”. Belisarius is puzzled […]
LOL Steve Bell: Someone is going offshore!
U.S. credit companies reported delinquencies and charge-offs for November. Nice sum-up by Reuters: U.S. credit card charge-offs resume climb. It doesn’t look nice. Looks like American Express (AXP) is most aggressive in addressing the situation and they are apparently managing to show some improvements. Capital One (COF) again with worsened numbers. Nice group of potential […]
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Industrial production rose 0.8% in November vs. 0.6% consensus and 0.1% rise in October. Capacity utilization was at 71.3% in November vs. 71.2% consensus and 70.7% level in October. So, moderate surprise to the upside. Producer prices rose 1.8% on a monthly level and 2.7% on a year level. If we take food and energy […]
Well, with Wells Fargo moving to repay TARP funds that chapter in the economic history will be closed. Citigroup succeeded in repaying yesterday. I expected that move to repay TARP funds and serial stock offerings would bring some strain to the bank share prices (and even broad market), but nothing jet on that front. Yes, […]
Looks like Nakheel PJSC bonds will be paid off in full. Bloomberg link: Abu Dhabi Bails Out Dubai World With $10 Billion.The move has prevented Asian stock exchanges from going into negative territory; Europe is trading up around 1% in average. Short follow up on last weeks U.S. economic data: Jobless claims ticked up reaching […]
Important U.S. earnings this week: Tuesday: Best Buy Co. (BBY), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Wednesday: Apogee Enterprises (APOG), Nordson (NDSN), Joy Global (JOYG) Thursday: Actuant Corporation (ATU), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FedEx Corporation (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Nike (NKE), Research In Motion (RIMM), Rite Aid (RAD), Winnebago Industries (WGO) Friday: CarMax (KMX) Important U.S. economic data: Tuesday: […]
Rules from the famous Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst. I couldn’t agree more. Markets tend to return to the mean over time Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further […]
Asian markets bounced on China industrial production figures. Apparently China’s factory output rose 19.2% in November vs. 18.2% consensus. Exports are running at -1.2% yoy, imports at +26.7% yoy. CPI at 0.6% yoy in November vs. -0.5% yoy in October. PPI rebounded from -5.8% in October to -2.1% in November YoY. New loans at Rmb295bn […]
First big draw happened one week later than I thought. Natural gas in storage fell 64 Bcf. UNG is trading up 7.7%. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures (Weekly) Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range
Crude oil broke out the range to the downside. The move is surprisingly strong despite some positive stock data this week. Crude oil stocks fell 3.8 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 2.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.6 million barrels; Other oils were down 1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 3.8 […]
I feels like the markets are searching for a new theme. The signs of a U.S. dollar strength have scared off recent themes (falling dollar = rising risk assets). Combined with a Bank of America capital issuance and a desperate attempts of Citigroup and Wells Fargo to do the same have completely altered the investing […]
After Germany (the U.S. is stimulating all the time), Japan announced some sort of stimulus. Telegraph story: Japan unveils $80bn of direct spending in $274bn stimulus package. $80 is peanuts for a Japan size of economy. The monetary stimulus was also small. Looks like politicians are trying to convince people they are doing something. Yesterday’s […]