U.S. Petroleum Weekly – 25 November 2009
Crude oil stocks were 1 million barrels higher than the week before. Gasoline stocks also 1 million barrels higher. Total distillates 0.5 million barrels lower. Other oils stock ended 1.6 million barrels higher.
U.S. net imports reached 9.8 million barrels but the rebound in imports coincided with stock increase. Refinery utilization edged higher to 80.25%.
Overall, the demand is not recovering, supplies are still abundant and fundamentals don’t support crude oil price at these levels.
Chart 1. Change in U.S. Crude Oil and Distillates Stocks
Chart 2. U.S. Total Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Ending Stocks
Chart 3. U.S. Refinery Capacity, Inputs, and Production
Chart 4. Weekly U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports and Exports
November 25th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
So, would you be expecting that oil is poised to test the bottom of downtrend channel and reach price of low 70 or even 60 USD per barrel in near future?Do you think that crude oil and gold markets can still provide a nice way to hedge against depreciation of USD?
November 26th, 2009 at 7:03 am
I would definitely expect oil reaching 60 mid term. For hedging purposes, the oil would be the worst instrument in my opinion, gold would be better. My choice to hedge against USD depreciation would be pure currency basket hedge via ie. UUP/UDN.