Short… Again…
I bought USO and SPY ATM January puts today. Feels like we have some weakness coming. Most of the better-than-expected results are out; economic data coming is sluggish (except maybe U.S. Q3 GDP reading tomorrow, but here I view the expectations high, so I’ll take the risk); and it feels extending stimulus (read: budget deficit widening) would be negatively viewed by the FX and fixed income markets so U.S. government would likely be cautious with the measures it is undertaking. So new stimulus fueled move is unlikely.
Btw. Goldman reduced its estimate for the Q3 GDP growth to 2.7% vs. 3% earlier.
The news today that changed the perspective on Australian and also global economy is on National Australia Bank negative quarter on bad loans provisions. Bloomberg story: National Australia Has First Loss Since at Least 2000. Cracks in the “resilient” Australian economy story.
New home sales took a hit on cash-for-clunkers effect tax incentive withdrawal. The reading came out 402k vs. 440 consensus (!!!), and 429 reading the month before. Bloomberg story: U.S. New-Home Sales Fall as Credit Nears Expiration.
Another bailout for the GMAC. ? Oh God, did they pass the stress test? Who remembers… Bloomberg story: GMAC May Receive Third Bailout From U.S. Government.
Norwegian central bank followed Australian lead and raised the benchmark rate to 1.5%. Bloomberg story: Norway Lifts Benchmark Rate, Signals More Increases .
GMAC, Goldman Sachs, National Australia Bank, New Home Sales, Norway, U.S. GDP, United States Oil Fund (USO)