Archive for October 28th, 2009

Reversal?

Big move down on all risky assets. Possibly a serious testing phase for equity markets ahead. U.S. dollar trying to escape recent down trend, treasuries up. Same story as in recent months but on the opposite side.

Short… Again…

I bought USO and SPY ATM January puts today. Feels like we have some weakness coming. Most of the better-than-expected results are out; economic data coming is sluggish (except maybe U.S. Q3 GDP reading tomorrow, but here I view the expectations high, so I’ll take the risk); and it feels extending stimulus (read: budget deficit widening) would be negatively viewed by the FX and fixed income markets so U.S. government would likely be cautious with the measures it is undertaking. So new stimulus fueled move is unlikely.

 

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